[Pin]

8-ball:

Lets assume you've broken, made one OB from your group, and the table makes an out possible.

If each of the remaining 7 balls is 90% to make the shot *and* get adequate position to continue the run, your odds of getting out are 48%.
You're less than 50-50 to do it.

90% is pretty high, expecially if you have to do something with the CB. And for every attempt.

If you don't make it, you might still be in good shape, or you might be in real trouble. It depends on when the break falls down, how the balls lie, and your opponent.

If you're 95% for each ball (and position) of the 7, you're still only 70% to get out. It's not great, considering you look virtually certain (19 times out of 20) to get each individual pot and position.


But most tables have one or two key shots, real toughies that the out hinges on. This drags down your chances even more.

And these statistics only even apply when you're able to break them well enough that the out is even a credible possibility.




It's tough to get out. Tougher than I thought before I looked at the numbers. How many of your shots do you really think you're 95% to pot *and* get position? For me, it's not that many, probably never every shot on the table.
That's my conclusion.